Africa’s Top 10 – May Quarterly 2026

Chinese manufacturers such as Chery and BYD are rapidly deepening their presence in South Africa through a combination of new brand launches, dealership expansion, and potential access to existing manufacturing capacity, including the Mercedes-Benz plant in East London (KuGompo City). In April, Chery confirmed plans to introduce its iCar (iCaur) brand to South Africa, building on earlier Q1 growth in markets such as Ghana through partners like Zonda Tec. This expansion goes beyond imports, signalling a broader shift toward cost-led competition, with Chinese vehicles entering the market at significantly lower price points, including sub-R350,000 offerings. This pricing strategy is materially undercutting traditional Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) segments, particularly in entry-level and mid-range categories historically dominated by Japanese and European brands. The impact is already visible in dealership responses and growing pricing pressure across South Africa’s automotive market. For incumbents and new entrants alike, competing effectively will require sharper localisation strategies, disciplined pricing, and strong distribution partnerships as Chinese OEMs redefine value benchmarks.

Dangote Group’s move to secure over 1,000 trucks and trailers powered by compressed natural gas (CNG) from a Chinese manufacturer marks a pivotal shift in Nigeria’s freight economics. Announced in April, the order reflects mounting pressure to reduce diesel costs and improve logistics efficiency across Nigeria’s industrial value chains. The scale of the industrial conglomerate’s order reflects the growing importance of vertically integrated logistics strategies among large industrial players, where transport efficiency directly affects production costs and competitiveness. The transition signals a structural pivot in heavy-duty transport, with fuel diversification becoming central and CNG adoption aligning with broader government efforts to utilise domestic gas reserves more effectively. This also reflects increasing alignment between corporate logistics strategies and national energy priorities. For fleet operators and investors, the development opens opportunities across vehicle supply, conversion infrastructure, and fuel distribution, while regulatory frameworks around CNG standards and safety will play a defining role in shaping implementation.

Industrial vehicle production continues to anchor South Africa’s automotive base, with Volvo Trucks commencing Euro 6 FH Aero assembly at its Durban plant and Tata Africa reaching its 12,000th truck milestone in Rosslyn, Tshwane, in April. Volvo’s Euro 6 assembly reflects tightening emissions alignment with global standards, positioning South Africa as a competitive export base for regulated markets. These developments underline sustained demand in logistics and construction segments, where utilisation remains closely tied to economic activity rather than consumer cycles. The localisation of heavy vehicle assembly supports broader industrial policy goals while reinforcing export potential. Structurally, this segment is proving more resilient than passenger vehicles, benefiting from freight demand and infrastructure-linked growth, tied to regional trade corridors and mining activity, where heavy-duty vehicles are essential to maintaining supply chain continuity. For investors, the opportunity lies in component supply chains, logistics integration, and supporting services where industrial mobility continues to demonstrate stable, demand-driven expansion.

Affordability remains the defining factor in African automotive markets, with used-vehicle imports continuing to dominate demand in countries such as Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa throughout February-March. In Kenya, used imports account for most registrations, while Nigeria’s reliance on imported vehicles reinforces similar dynamics. This is compounded by the limited availability of affordable credit, with formal vehicle financing penetration remaining low across most markets, constraining the shift towards new-vehicle ownership. This entrenched structure limits the addressable market for new vehicles from OEMs such as Toyota and Volkswagen, despite ongoing regulatory efforts to tighten emissions and age restrictions. The persistence of used vehicle demand highlights structural income constraints and limited access to consumer financing. For OEMs and investors, this necessitates a dual-market approach that balances new-vehicle offerings with aftermarket services or certified used programmes, while navigating evolving regulatory frameworks.

Tanzania’s expansion of fuel storage capacity at Dar es Salaam port is set to improve supply reliability for transport operators across East Africa, addressing long-standing bottlenecks in fuel distribution. The US$274 million project, launched in April, is expected to reduce tanker delays and enhance efficiency along key trucking corridors linking Tanzania to Zambia and the DRC. These corridors are critical for regional trade flows, particularly for bulk commodities and logistics networks that rely heavily on road freight. Reliable fuel infrastructure plays a foundational role in mobility systems, directly influencing operating costs and route efficiency. Improved storage capacity also reduces exposure to supply disruptions, which have historically increased volatility in transport pricing across East African corridors. This development strengthens the logistics backbone supporting road freight movement across the region. For operators and investors, improved fuel availability creates opportunities in distribution, fleet operations, and cross-border trade integration, particularly where infrastructure upgrades reduce friction in transport systems.

Policy developments in Nigeria are beginning to formalise the electric vehicle (EV) market, with the Electric Vehicle Bill and National Land Transport Policy laying the groundwork for coordinated adoption. Introduced in February, these frameworks aim to standardise licensing, infrastructure rollout, and incentives in major urban centres, such as Lagos and Abuja. Early signals suggest that implementation will prioritise fleet and commercial use cases, where adoption can scale faster due to higher utilisation rates and more predictable operating environments. The shift from fragmented pilot activity to structured policy implementation signals a more predictable environment for investment. This coordinated approach reflects a broader trend where regulatory clarity, rather than technology readiness, drives market formation. For investors and OEMs, including Chinese entrants, early engagement with permitting processes and local partnerships will be essential, as compliance and regulatory positioning will determine market access and scalability.

Policy developments in Nigeria are beginning to formalise the electric vehicle (EV) market, with the Electric Vehicle Bill and National Land Transport Policy laying the groundwork for coordinated adoption. Introduced in February, these frameworks aim to standardise licensing, infrastructure rollout, and incentives in major urban centres, such as Lagos and Abuja. Early signals suggest that implementation will prioritise fleet and commercial use cases, where adoption can scale faster due to higher utilisation rates and more predictable operating environments. The shift from fragmented pilot activity to structured policy implementation signals a more predictable environment for investment. This coordinated approach reflects a broader trend where regulatory clarity, rather than technology readiness, drives market formation. For investors and OEMs, including Chinese entrants, early engagement with permitting processes and local partnerships will be essential, as compliance and regulatory positioning will determine market access and scalability.

Manufacturers operating across Africa are increasingly aligning production strategies with AfCFTA Rules of Origin, which require defined local content thresholds to access tariff benefits across more than 50 participating countries. Since their rollout in February, these rules have begun shaping decisions in established hubs such as Morocco and South Africa, while encouraging supplier development in emerging markets like Ghana. This is influencing tier-2 and tier-3 supplier positioning, particularly in components and assembly inputs where localisation thresholds can be met more rapidly. The framework links trade incentives directly to industrial policy, driving localisation and regional value chain development. However, uneven manufacturing capacity across the continent limits immediate gains for some markets. Countries without established manufacturing bases may face delayed participation, reinforcing a two-speed integration dynamic across the continent. For OEMs such as Toyota and Volkswagen, adapting sourcing and production models to meet origin requirements is now essential to unlocking intra-African trade and maintaining competitiveness.

Financing-led adoption is emerging as the primary driver of EV uptake in African markets, particularly within commercial fleet segments. Operators such as BasiGo in Nairobi are using leasing and pay-as-you-drive models to overcome high upfront costs, accelerating deployment in Kenya and South Africa during February-March. In Kenya, this has been particularly evident in bus and ride-hailing segments, where predictable routes and high utilisation improve the economics of EV financing. This shift reflects a transition toward mobility-as-a-service, where utilisation and financing structures determine adoption rather than only vehicle availability. Concentrated demand within fleet operators is also helping to build early ecosystem scale. As these models mature, they are likely to shape standardised financing frameworks that can be replicated across additional African markets. For investors and OEMs, structuring compliant financing vehicles and navigating regulatory frameworks around leasing and asset ownership will be critical to expanding EV penetration in markets where affordability remains a constraint.

Cape Town’s move toward electrifying its public transport fleet highlights growing momentum in urban mobility transformation. A research programme launched with the University of Cape Town in February is laying the groundwork for electric bus deployment, positioning the city as an early adopter in Africa. The initiative is expected to inform procurement strategies for MyCiTi and other bus rapid transit systems, which are central to Cape Town’s urban mobility network. High-utilisation bus routes offer a practical entry point for electrification, given their predictable operations and centralised management. This makes buses particularly attractive for phased electrification compared to private passenger vehicles, where usage patterns are less consistent. However, scaling these initiatives will depend on financing models and municipal policy support. For cities and investors, the transition presents opportunities in fleet procurement, charging infrastructure, and public-private partnerships, while regulatory frameworks around procurement and funding will shape long-term implementation.

Large-scale rail investments are reshaping regional logistics networks, complementing road-based mobility systems across Africa. Projects such as Kenya’s US$943 million SGR extension, Algeria’s 950km railway, and the DRC’s push for US$1 billion in Lobito Corridor financing gained traction across March-April. These developments improve connectivity between production hubs and export corridors, reducing pressure on road freight systems. In markets such as Kenya and the DRC, this is already shifting bulk cargo movement away from long-haul trucking toward rail-linked corridors. Rail’s role as a backbone for heavy cargo movement is becoming increasingly important for industrial value chains. For investors and logistics operators, opportunities lie in rolling stock, corridor development, and integration with road transport networks, particularly where rail enhances efficiency across mining and export-driven economies. Over time, this could rebalance demand for heavy-duty road vehicles, particularly in segments tied to long-distance freight and bulk commodity transport.

Morocco-France electric freight corridor advances cross-border logistics

Morocco is positioning itself as a key logistics bridge between Africa and Europe through plans to establish heavy-duty electric truck corridors linking it with France. Progress in April highlights growing interest in decarbonised freight routes and the potential for integrated cross-border supply chains. This places the country as an early mover in aligning freight infrastructure with Europe’s decarbonisation standards, strengthening its competitiveness in export-oriented logistics.

Ghana expands Chery distribution network through Zonda Tec

Chery’s continued expansion into West Africa gained momentum in April as Ghana broadened its vehicle lineup through Zonda Tec, strengthening Chinese OEM penetration and reinforcing dealership and distribution networks across the region. The growth highlights increasing demand in West Africa’s mid-range vehicle segment, where affordability and availability are reshaping brand competition.

Tanzania begins local assembly of rail locomotives

Tanzania’s move into local locomotive assembly in March signals growing domestic participation in transport infrastructure development, supporting regional logistics capacity and complementing broader mobility system upgrades. This also assists skills development and local supply chain participation, strengthening Tanzania’s long-term positioning within regional transport infrastructure development.